Bank M&A activity unsurprisingly remained slow in May as both buyers and sellers focused their respective attentions elsewhere. In fact, May saw only 2 whole-bank M&A transactions announced, a far cry from the long-term median of 22 deals per month.
May did see a flurry of bank capital-raising as more than $21 billion of senior debt, subordinated debt or preferred equity was issued, the highest monthly level since 2009. A prevailing theme was issuers bolstering capital levels - and, for those issuing debt, at relatively attractive borrowing rates - as insurance of sorts given economic uncertainties and, in the event the recession proves more benign, securing capital to support organic growth and/or M&A activity.
In that context, we increasingly anticipate a surge of bank M&A activity in the years ahead. In addition to the resumption of previously-paused deals, we anticipate an increase in both sellers and buyers alike as the factors driving consolidation pre-COVID largely hold and are now amplified by even-lower interest rates and slower loan growth.
Future consolidation will, by definition, trim the headcount in terms of the number of independent banks, though the arc of consolidation in the banking industry has been underway for decades. As reflected in the Chart of the Month of the June edition of The M&A Monitor, Olsen Palmer’s monthly summary of M&A in the banking industry (subscribe here), the number of independent banks in the U.S. has declined from over 15,000 in 1990 to just approximately 5,100 today. Going forward, we will be interested to see if the largest banks hold, or potentially even expand, their market share gains as was the case over the past few decades: the deposit market share of the top 10 largest U.S. banks increased from 14% in 1990 to over 52% today.
To further discuss the impact of COVID on bank M&A and best practices across strategic options, we are hosting a Special Edition Webinar on Wednesday, June 24th at 3pm (EST), “The State of Bank M&A”. To register for the live session or to subsequently access the recorded version, please register here.
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